🌍 Forex Weekly News Recap: April 5–11, 2026
Another action-packed week in the global forex and financial markets. Here’s your complete breakdown of the key events, data releases, and geopolitical developments shaping currency markets this week.
🔥 Top Market Themes This Week
1. US–Iran War: The Dominant Risk Driver
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to be the single most important fundamental factor for global markets. President Trump issued a stark 48-hour ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, warning of severe military consequences if Iran does not comply. With the Hormuz Strait accounting for approximately 20% of global oil transit, the threat has sent oil prices surging well above $100/barrel for front-month contracts, while back-month contracts remain around $70–$78, reflecting market hopes for a resolution.
The White House has also proposed a staggering $1.5 trillion defence budget, underscoring that the conflict is expected to be prolonged. Markets remain deeply on edge, and risk sentiment is fragile.
2. US Non-Farm Payrolls Beat — But Markets Shrug
Friday’s NFP report (released on Good Friday, when most major exchanges were closed) delivered a strong upside surprise in March employment. However, the market reaction was muted — and potentially bearish for risk. The reason? With the Iran war threatening a fresh inflation shock, a strong labour market gives the Federal Reserve even less room to cut rates. Stagflation fears are back on the table.
The Fed is caught between rising inflation risks (energy-driven) and economic growth concerns, making its policy path increasingly uncertain. FOMC members Goolsbee and Jefferson are both scheduled to speak this week — watch for forward guidance signals.
3. Bank of Japan: Rate Hike Still on the Table
The Japanese Yen remains under pressure as the BoJ navigates uncertainty around its rate hike timeline. A central bank official stated the BoJ is still planning to raise rates, but with one eye on the fallout from the Iran war. Household Spending data and Average Cash Earnings are due this week and will be critical inputs for the BoJ’s decision-making.
4. RBNZ Decision — Rate Cut Expected
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to hold or cut rates to 2.25% on Tuesday, April 7. Markets will be closely watching the RBNZ Rate Statement and the subsequent press conference for any dovish signals. The NZD has been under pressure amid global risk-off sentiment.
📅 Key Economic Events: Week of April 5–11, 2026
| Day | Event | Currency | Impact | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Apr 6 | ISM Services PMI | USD | 🔴 High | 54.8 | 56.1 |
| Mon, Apr 6 | Spanish Unemployment Change | EUR | 🟡 Med | 10.3K | 3.6K |
| Mon, Apr 6 | Household Spending y/y | JPY | 🟡 Med | -0.7% | -1.0% |
| Tue, Apr 7 | Eurozone Services PMI (Final) | EUR | 🟡 Med | 50.1 | 50.1 |
| Tue, Apr 7 | Sentix Investor Confidence | EUR | 🟡 Med | -7.5 | -3.1 |
| Tue, Apr 7 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | USD | 🔴 High | — | 10.0K |
| Tue, Apr 7 | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | USD | 🔴 High | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Tue, Apr 7 | RBNZ Official Cash Rate | NZD | 🔴 High | 2.25% | 2.25% |
| Tue, Apr 7 | RBNZ Press Conference | NZD | 🔴 High | — | — |
| Tue, Apr 7 | Average Cash Earnings y/y | JPY | 🟡 Med | 2.7% | 3.0% |
| Tue, Apr 7 | German Factory Orders m/m | EUR | 🟡 Med | 3.2% | -11.1% |
| Tue, Apr 7 | Ivey PMI | CAD | 🟡 Med | 57.2 | 56.6 |
| Tue, Apr 7 | Consumer Credit m/m | USD | 🟡 Med | 11.4B | 8.0B |
| Tue, Apr 7 | FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks | USD | 🔴 High | — | — |
| Tue, Apr 7 | FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks | USD | 🔴 High | — | — |
💱 Currency Pair Highlights
EUR/USD — Under Pressure
The Euro initially plunged against the US Dollar last week following Trump’s address to the nation, as interest rates spiked and no resolution to the Middle East conflict was offered. Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence is expected to deteriorate further to -7.5 (from -3.1), reflecting growing pessimism. Final Services PMI readings for Germany, France, and the broader Eurozone are due and expected to confirm the flash readings near the 50 expansion/contraction line.
USD/JPY — BoJ Uncertainty Weighs on Yen
The Yen continues to struggle as the Bank of Japan remains cautious. While a rate hike is still expected, the Iran war adds significant uncertainty to the timeline. Household spending data due Monday could signal whether Japanese consumers are feeling the pressure. A 30-year JGB auction is also on the schedule.
NZD/USD — RBNZ in Focus
All eyes on the RBNZ Tuesday. Forecasts suggest rates are held at 2.25%, but dovish language in the statement could weigh heavily on the Kiwi. ANZ Commodity Prices and ANZ Job Advertisements data will also be released Monday.
GBP — Bank Holiday Monday
UK markets are closed Monday for the Easter Bank Holiday. Final Services PMI for the UK is due Tuesday and is expected to confirm the flash reading of 51.2, a modest expansion.
🛢️ Oil & Commodities
WTI Crude is trading well above $100/barrel as the Iran war disrupts Middle East supply routes. The May WTI contract settled near $111.55, reflecting near-term escalation risk. However, the June contract settled near $98 and September below $78, suggesting markets expect some resolution.
OPEC-JMMC Meetings are ongoing this Sunday, April 5 — any production decisions will be a key catalyst for oil prices and risk sentiment heading into the week.
🏦 Central Bank Rates — Current Snapshot
| Central Bank | Currency | Current Rate |
|---|---|---|
| RBA | AUD | 4.10% |
| Bank of England | GBP | 3.75% |
| Federal Reserve | USD | 3.75% |
| Bank of Canada | CAD | 2.25% |
| RBNZ | NZD | 2.25% |
| ECB | EUR | 2.15% |
| Bank of Japan | JPY | <0.75% |
| SNB | CHF | 0.00% |
📌 What to Watch This Week
- RBNZ Rate Decision (Tue, Apr 7) — Key NZD mover
- FOMC Speakers (Goolsbee & Jefferson, Tue) — Fed rate path signals
- US Core Durable Goods (Tue) — Manufacturing demand gauge
- ISM Services PMI (Mon) — Broad US economic health
- Trump–Iran 48hr Deadline — Geopolitical wildcard; could spike oil and risk-off flows
- German Factory Orders (Tue) — Expected sharp rebound from -11.1% to +3.2%
- Kevin Warsh Senate Nomination Hearing (Apr 16) — Potential Fed Chair signal
Data sourced from ForexFactory.com. This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading.
